MBA Admissions Predictions 2024
The MBA Admissions landscape continues to shift
At the start of the year, more than ever, MBA candidates want to know:
“Are applications to the top business schools up or down?”
“Will Round 2 be extremely competitive?”
“Should I apply to business school in Round 3 or the last rounds of MBA admissions?”
“What does this mean for MY MBA admissions odds?”
This year, even top MBA graduates are struggling to find jobs. This raises another question:
“Is the MBA even worth it anymore?”
What should you expect as an MBA candidate in 2024?
How valuable are MBA admissions predictions?
Frank McKinney Hubbard famously said, “Forecast: to observe that which has passed, and guess it will happen again.”
My own philosophy is that the most important part of making predictions is not that you pretend to be some sort of clairvoyant. Looking at trends, history, and what might be happening in another industry that is relevant is important. This helps you come up with ideas about what might happen and how it might impact you in the MBA Application process.
As the British investor Jim Slater once said, “In a crowded room, you only have to see one inch above everyone else to notice things others will miss.”
Which is exactly the goal of this article. I will discuss the key trends emerging in MBA admissions right now, what we know about the MBA applications volume to the top MBA programs, and what YOU should DO about them.
What we learned from Round 1 of MBA Admissions 2023-2024
Before we delve deeper, we need to remember what we know from the last MBA admissions cycle, the 2022-2023 one.
The Graduate Management Admissions Council (GMAC) report on 2023 application trends showed a clear change in MBA admissions. Across all schools and programs, applications to MBA programs saw an average decline of 4.9% during the 22-23 cycle.
Many top MBA programs saw a decrease in applications, including the top 15 full-time programs.
However, it wasn't all about declines; flexible MBA programs bucked the trend by reporting growth. This shows that MBA applicants' preferences and priorities are changing.
Top schools saw declines ranging from 1% at Harvard Business School and Wharton to over 10% at other schools.
But did this make it “easier” to get into the most selective MBA programs?
It takes just one look at the data from the most recent MBA admissions cycle to see this was not the case. Acceptance rates may have moved up a tiny bit but the quality of admitted MBA candidates was even stronger than usual.
At Harvard Business School, where applications went down 1.4%, the median GMAT score reached a new record of 740. That's an increase of entire 10 points compared to previous years.
At Columbia Business School applications went down 4.6% - from 6,177 to 5,895. Yet, both the class size and the average GMAT were up!
But what about this year?
So much noise out there! In December, there were indications that MBA applications may have gone up in Round 1. When speaking with prospective students and welcoming new admits, Booth and Kellogg mentioned significant increases in applications.
But let’s not forget, last year some schools were saying the same thing mid-cycle. Notably, when announcing the addition of a Round 4 last year, Duke mentioned in a blog post that “We saw applications for our Round 2 deadline increase over last year.” And yet, when the final application numbers came out, overall applications at Fuqua were down.
So the reality is that we can’t be sure if applications will be up or down in the 2023-2024 MBA admissions cycle. The increases some schools are seeing might be just a Round 1 phenomenon. It may have been driven by the changes to the GMAT and GRE exams. Such changes are known to “pull demand forward” as test takers flock to take the exam they have familiarity with.
The current business school admissions landscape may STILL present an opportunity. It may STILL be the kind of MBA admissions environment where strong candidates will have stronger odds at higher ranked schools.
If I had to make an expert guess, I think it’s likely that domestic applications are down or only slightly up while international applications are a bit up.
What else do we know about the 2023-2024 MBA admissions cycle so far?
Now that Round 1 is fully behind us, here’s what we know for sure.
As always, the candidates who got admitted in R1 were still the strongest ones. Plenty of 760s and 780s GMATs didn’t even get an admissions interview or got ultimately denied or waitlisted. So despite what may be going on with application volumes, one thing remains unchanged – to get admitted to a highly selective program, you must be a strong candidate, both competitive and compelling.
Even though there are fewer applications, the quality is possibly better. I have experienced years like this as Dean of MBA Admissions.
The biggest takeaway for you as an MBA candidate is that even in down cycles, schools will always have plenty of strong candidates. Their admit rate might go up a bit because the denominator becomes smaller. But the numerator will always consist of MBA candidates who meet their admissions standards.
Will Round 3 be different this year?
Round 3 (or any last round of MBA admissions) has rarely been a truly great option.
But R3 has always been an option for exceptional candidates who put in the work to create a strong application. This year there might be more exceptions. But there is a lot you need to keep in mind and account for as a Round 3 candidate. Your biggest challenge as a Round 3 candidate is to prove that your application is not rushed or desperate.
If you are aiming for Round 1 in fall 2024, what should you be doing now?
What’s the most important thing to do?
Prioritize preparing for the GMAT or GRE, researching and engaging with your target schools.
But there is something else that is even more important as it can make or break your MBA story.
The number one thing to do is bolster your leadership record.
What does MBA leadership track record even mean? It means you need to have been part of something bigger than yourself!
Here are some examples of what some of my candidates have done.
One successful quadruple admit organized a 5K run and fundraised for Asian businesses during the pandemic
A number of candidates joined iMentor.
One began providing translation services for immigrants.
Someone else organized a tree planting drive.
A number of MBA candidates join employee resource groups at work. Some of the most driven ones take on leadership roles in these groups.
As you can see, these are all activities that are not exceedingly difficult to put into action.
Now, when I discuss bolstering your leadership record, many MBA candidates start worrying that it's too late. You worry that the MBA admissions committee will think any new extracurricular activity is only for your MBA Application. I understand this concern but it's not something you need to worry about. Getting involved a few months before applying can still help demonstrate leadership skills in your resume and MBA essays.
Hopefully, now you are better prepared for whatever the next stage of the MBA admissions race is ahead of you!
On my YouTube channel, next week I will discuss the rise of international candidates in the applicant pool. Subscribe for My MBA Path so you never miss the most important developments you should know as an MBA candidate.