MBA Admissions Predictions 2023
The January MBA Admissions Predictions 2023 webinar had the highest registrations and attendance ever!
Clearly, so many of you wanted to discuss the most recent shifts in the MBA admissions landscape.
A ton of you asked for a summary of the webinar content. Below is the summary of the January 2023 MBA Admissions Trends and Updates.
For the most recent updates to the MBA Admissions Trends 2023-2024, check out the video below
1. What was new and surprising in Round 1?
Applications at many schools were likely down in Round 1 and Round 2.
When I talk about this, candidates always ask, “How much down?”.
We will never see this data “per round” made publicly available. We will get to see total application volumes but that will happen much later – after enrollment numbers and class profiles are finalized next summer.
But here is the thing. If you know the answer, what will you do with it? Will you do something different in your application if you know your target school was down 10% vs 20%?
Now, what I do know is that last year, “75 percent of full-time two-year MBA programs saw reduced applications in 2022, while 64 percent of those same programs reported rises in international application rates”. We know this from GMAC’s “2022 Application Trends Report”.
It’s entirely possible that this is what is also happening this year – that the decline is not equally distributed across domestic (US) and international MBA candidates.
What I also know is that the candidates who got admitted in Round 1 were still the strongest ones. Plenty of candidates with GMATs in the 760-780 range didn’t even get an admissions interview or got ultimately denied or waitlisted.
To an extent, the MBA admissions ecosystem created the conditions for this – so many publications were dubbing Round 1 “once in a life-time chance to get into a more selective program”. So it’s not inconceivable that while quantity was down, quality was even higher than usual – I’ve certainly seen years like this in my previous role as Dean of MBA Admissions.
The biggest takeaway MBA candidates like you should keep in mind is that even in down cycles, schools will always have plenty of strong candidates. Their admit rate might go up a bit because the denominator becomes smaller. But you can rest assured that the numerator, the number that represents the admitted students, will consist of MBA candidates who meet the program’s admissions standards.
2. What to expect as a Round 2 candidate?
You’ve all seen the headlines – schools are making adjustments to the admissions process and timelines in response to the economic situation and labor market and most likely, also in response to what they are seeing in their application pipeline.
When the application volume is lower, the average odds do go up – but the candidates who benefit from it are still the strongest candidates. They might see traction at higher ranked programs compared to years when the volume was lower.
What does this mean for you?
If you are one of those candidate and you get an MBA interview invite, nail it! This might be your chance to get admitted to a more selective program. Even if you consider yourself a stellar interviewee – prep, prep, prep! Here’s how to prepare to ace your MBA admissions interview.
Another implication is that there may be more waitlist movement or it might happen sooner than typical. Here is my advice for those who find themselves on the waitlist.
3. How Round 3 this year may be different than any Round 3 we've seen before?
Round 3 of MBA admissions has rarely been a truly great option. It is well known that by the time Round 3 happens, the available seats in MBA classes are fewer and scholarships are scarce.
But Round 3 has always been an option for exceptionally candidates.
This year there might be more exceptions – the tech layoffs will bring more strong professionals into the MBA application pipeline. That may not be a very large number but the schools are clearly ready to welcome them with extended deadlines and accommodations such as test waivers or a simplified admissions process.
The key is to keep in mind that this does not mean candidates who hastily put together an MBA application will have a strong chance.
Round 3 of MBA admissions will continue to be less than ideal for international candidates because of the extra time admitted international students need to apply for their visas and organize their move overseas.
4. What the increase of international students in the most recent top MBA classes means for you?
I mentioned earlier that in its “2022 Application Trends Report”, GMAC shared that last year “75 percent of full-time two-year MBA programs saw reduced applications in 2022, while 64 percent of those same programs reported rises in international application rates”.
We saw this manifest itself in the class profiles schools published last summer – the percentage international students at top US business schools was almost universally up.
As an international candidate, you can view this as good news - schools will have to continue to admit more international candidates. But there will also be more competition within the international segment.
5. How not to get stumbled by the DEI questions that are now in every MBA interview and many essays?
Business schools are expected to train industry leaders, capable of addressing not simply business needs but society’s most pressing ones too. If you are applying to a highly selective MBA program, you are making a claim about your leadership potential and commitment. And you are expected to back that claim with proof and evidence.
Yet somehow candidates often get stumbled by the diversity, equity and inclusion questions. They become defensive at worst or confused at best. If it happened to you, I don’t blame you. We don’t have a perfect toolkit for navigating difficult questions.
But I am here to tell you that coming up with strong answers and examples starts with self-examination. Before you start answering that one essay or interview question, you need to ask yourself more questions first.
6. Will ChatGPT disrupt the nature of MBA admissions essays?
The simple answer to this question is that the schools are right now tackling the ChatGPT questions from so many angles that go way beyond its use in admissions essays. I would argue that addressing any potential misuses of AI in the MBA application process is easier to do than doing the same as it relates to other coursework.
As far as AI in MBA admissions is concerned, don’t be surprised if the Analytical Writing Assessment portion of the GMAT all of a sudden becomes much more important and if we see an increase in the use of video essays.
7. Will Round 1 this coming fall be way more competitive due to the usual uptick in MBA applications during recessions?
So far, that trend has held true in previous recessions. And yet, we are seeing prospective students be quite cautious about it right now. I recently provided an opinion to the WSJ on that topic. You can see the article here.
Now the biggest question of all is what do YOU do with all of this information?
Tune out the noise. Focus on action instead of mere activitity.
Don’t be reactive. Be intentional. If you don’t get traction in Round 1 and Round 2, don’t assume Round 3 is your best option. Consider if re-applying in Round 1 next year gives you a better chance to put together a strong application and apply during the round when odds are traditionally the strongest.
If you applied in Round 2, get ready to rock your MBA interview.
If you are applying this fall, you are right now in this glorious, sweet spot where you can do so many things to build a strong application!
Schedule your first test to get a benchmark and have runway to re-take if necessary.
Build up your leadership profile – assess your extracurriculars and see where you can do something new or do something more in the places where you are already involved.
And if you want to discuss how I can help you build the strongest possible application as I did for my very successful MBA candidates in the past, schedule a free consultation.
Onwards and upwards,
Petia