What to expect from the 2023-2024 MBA Admissions Cycle

“Can we identify trends on Round 1 application volumes compared to the previous cycle?”

The questions started popping up in online forums before the Round 1 deadlines were in even in our rearview mirror!

You MBA hopefuls are a data-driven bunch!

You want to be in the know – especially about MBA application volumes and how they might impact your odds.

I get it! The MBA application process always includes hope intertwined with doubt: “How strong is my candidacy? Do I have a shot?”

[Don’t miss the upcoming “MBA Admissions Predictions 2024”]

Analyzing the 2023-2024 MBA Admissions Cycle

So what do we already know about the 2023-2024 MBA admissions cycle that just kicked off? Let’s take a look at what indicators exists, what predictions can be made based on them, and most importantly, what does it all mean for you?

At the time of me recording this video in September 2023, a number of schools have released data about the cycle that just concluded – the 2022-2023 MBA admissions cycle.

And at those schools – Harvard, Wharton, Duke, UCLA, Yale – applications went down this last cycle. The range of declines was anywhere from a mere 1% at Harvard Business School to more than 10% at other schools.

So MBA applications are trending down, although the very top schools are mostly flat.

Now what else do we know about the declines in MBA application volumes?

If you follow my MBA application trends updates, you might recall that those declines are not uniform across all populations.

In 2022, 75 percent of full-time two-year MBA programs saw reduced application. But 64% of those same programs reported rises in international application rates.

I have all reasons to believe this was still the case for the most recent cycle and that the decline in MBA applications was likely much steeper coming from domestic, US candidates.

And indeed, we are seeing this clearly in the most recent class profiles with the percentage of international having inched up a bit compared to previous years.

Now, the big question on everyone’s mind is this. Historically, when the US economy is in a recession or a downturn, applications, especially to full-time MBA programs, go up.

Will this trend hold true for the 2023-2024 MBA application cycle?

So far, the historic trend of MBA applications going up during economic downturns hasn’t materialized this year.

When the layoffs began at the beginning of this year, there was a wide anticipation of an increase in MBA applications.

At the time, I was interviewed by the WSJ for an article titled “Should You Give Up Your Salary and Go to Grad School?”

At the time, schools, notably Kellogg being the first one, began to make accommodations for the laid off individuals, including GMAT or GRE waivers and in some cases a more streamlined application process.

At the time, my prediction was that the people who might apply after being laid-off are the ones “likely already considering business school, since it takes time to research programs.”

“You’re thinking about how that fits into your career overall,” is what I said. “It’s not a Band-Aid for losing your job.”

Just as I expected and as we can clearly see now these accommodations did not move the needle much, maybe not at all.

But it’s not too late for the trend of the application volumes being “counter-cyclical to the economy” to manifest itself this year.

It is not entirely inconceivable that over the last months, the young people who typically apply to full-time MBA programs have been doing their research, preparing for and taking the GMAT or GRE, connecting with the schools and with mentors and peers, and are now ready to apply.

There might still be a sufficient number of them who are considering business school as a good move while the economy and the labor market return to whatever the next normal might be.

And as news of the most recent application volume being down continue to spread, these candidates might take this as a sign that this year presents a unique opportunity to get into a more selective program.

News like this can sometimes shift the timeline of when people apply to business school even if they don’t serve as the sole catalyst of the decision to get an MBA.

Shifting Motivations in MBA Candidates

Now, what else has changed when it comes to who is applying to business school?

The most profound change affects what is at the very heart of the MBA pursuit.

It’s about the biggest motivation of MBA candidates when applying to top business schools.

The recently released 2023 GMAC Prospective Students Survey revealed one stunning difference in terms of who is applying to business school nowadays.

Here’s the key finding from the report into the motivations of MBA candidates:

“Globally, 79 percent of prospective students are motivated to pursue GME to enrich their lives and develop their potential—15 percentage points more than the next-best motivator, increasing income.”

I want you to pause and think about this for a moment.

The rules of the MBA game have changed. This is a fundamental shift.

Most MBA candidates are seeking personal development and growth, rather than just financial gain.

They are driven by a desire to learn and develop as individuals, rather than solely to increase their earning potential.

Business schools have always valued candidates who show a commitment to personal growth and development. The top MBA programs look for evidence of such motivation throughout your MBA application.

Your Roadmap to Success

So here’s my advice for you.

When crafting your MBA essays and application materials, consider highlighting not only your career aspirations but also your values and how they drive your personal motivations for pursuing an MBA.

MBA Admissions Officers are looking for driven candidates who will make positive contributions to their programs, their communities, and the world.

Showcasing your commitment to personal and societal growth can set you apart from other MBA applicants.

OK, I know I have thrown a lot of insights at you.

But the most successful MBA candidates are the ones who are genuinely interested in understanding how MBA admissions works and who take the time to educate themselves about the MBA application process.

So where do you go from here?

Where should you go to continue to find reliable data about the current MBA admissions cycle?

I will be publishing updates as data becomes available so make sure to follow me on whatever channel you are watching this video.

And I frequently run webinars where in addition to providing updates, you have the opportunity to be part of the conversation and to understand how all of this applies to you.

To stay updated, make sure to sign up for the Sunday MBA AdCom insights.

Onwards and upwards,

Petia